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Interactive Tools and Models: Citrus Thrips Scarring Prediction Model—Testing Phase*
San Joaquin Valley, California

This model, validated so far only in Tulare County, California, is a first step in developing a reliable prediction of citrus thrips damage with advance warning. It estimates the degree of first scarring of Navel oranges by citrus thrips, Scirtothrips citri, from weather data that accumulates prior to petal fall.

*Validation of this model has been limited, and you are encouraged to test the model to see if it is helpful to you under your field conditions. You can also help us to test and improve the model. Disclaimer: The University of California and the authors of this model do not assume any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any loss that may result from using predictions from this model.

Estimates for active stations in counties:
| Fresno | Kern |  Madera | Tulare |
Choose year
Or use your own weather data  

Predictions are based on actual weather data. When a prediction is available for a station (usually between March 17 and the end of April), it is posted here.

County Active Weather Stations 2014
Estimated damage
Days with estimated temperatures
Fresno CARUTHERS-01.P, CAR 5.1% 6 of 78 days
Coalinga, CIMIS #205 3.8% 0 of 76 days
Del_Rey/Fowler-01.P, DELF 6.0% 39 of 76 days
EASTON-01.P, EAS 6.6% 6 of 77 days
Firebaugh/Telles, CIMIS #7 4.1% 0 of 78 days
Five Points/WSFS USDA, CIMIS #2 7.6% 0 of 79 days
Fresno State, CIMIS #80 5.7% 27 of 77 days
Five Points South West, CIMIS #190 7.3% 0 of 75 days
KERMAN-01.P, KER 8.3% 6 of 81 days
KINGSBURG-01.P, KNG 6.8% 7 of 77 days
Kearney_Ag_Ctr-01.P, KAC 5.9% 0 of 77 days
Laton_North-01.P, LATN 8.2% 6 of 77 days
Orange Cove, CIMIS #142 12.2% 0 of 81 days
Panoche, CIMIS #124 3.7% 1 of 78 days
Parlier, CIMIS #39 3.5% 0 of 74 days
SAND_RANCH-01.P, SR1 6.3% 7 of 78 days
Westlands, CIMIS #105 5.8% 0 of 74 days
 
Kern Arvin-Edison, CIMIS #125 2.6% 2 of 74 days
Blackwells Corner, CIMIS #54 4.7% 4 of 77 days
Famoso, CIMIS #138 4.2% 2 of 79 days
Belridge, CIMIS #146 5.6% 2 of 76 days
 
Madera FIREBAUGH/ALISO-01.P, FRBA 5.7% 0 of 78 days
Madera_North-01.P, MADN 6.0% 0 of 78 days
Madera_South-01.P, MADS 8.4% 7 of 95 days
 
Tulare Alpaugh, CIMIS #203 24.1% 1 of 78 days
Delano, CIMIS #182 6.0% 1 of 77 days
Lindcove, CIMIS #86 6.0% 0 of 77 days
Porterville, CIMIS #169 7.3% 0 of 78 days

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Statewide IPM Program, Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of California
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